How likely is nuclear Armageddon?

Trump was - if anything - actually arguing against nuclear proliferation in his idiotic answer.

I just had to go on a rant tonight, apparently. The discussion between the three of us had progressed from the question "Why do humans have drive?" to "Where is the world going to?" and the grim specter of a nuclear Armageddon began to tantalize me.

How likely is a large nuclear exchange, say 10 detonations or more? I would like this answer to be "exactly zero".... but we can't really say that.

While there is something to be said for the fact that in the 71 years since nuclear weapons have first demonstrated their destructive power they have not been used since, I think human kind has been a dangerous flirt in this. There have been several instances where nations have come very close to exchanging nuclear weapons. In sexual parlance, we haven't "done it" yet... still holding to the "just the (nuclear) tip (....missiles) philosophy.

Some close calls:

1962... The Cuban Missile Crisis:

This was scary as fuck, looking back on it. Probably at the time, too, since that's when making actual bomb shelters in your backyard was all the rage. Basically, John F. Kennedy displayed an incredible willingness to bring the world to nuclear exchange for... pride or prestige. Nuclear missiles in Cuba didn't change the picture at all - the U.S. and Soviet Union were able to destroy each other in 15 minutes anyways. They were primarily being sent there because Kennedy had already shown himself intent on assassinating Castro and invading the island.

A great example of how insane it is having people fly or float around with these things is below:

One Soviet officer’s reluctance saved the world from nuclear war. On October 27 (1962), American destroyers forced a Soviet submarine to surface near the quarantine line using depth charges. Unbeknownst to the Americans, the sub was carrying a nuclear-tipped torpedo. The Soviet commander believed that war had started and prepared to fire. Fortunately, authorization from three other officers was needed. Two were in favor. One was not.

The pride and prestige of Kennedy... the desire "not to disgrace our navy" of the Soviet sub commander. Think those human traits have gone anywhere?


1979... Good Old Fashioned Computer / Human Error:

....(C)omputers at the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) headquarters indicated that a large-scale Soviet missile attack was underway.

NORAD immediately relayed the information to high-level command posts and top leaders convened to assess the threat. Their response was swift: crews responsible for launching U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles were put on the highest alert, nuclear bomber crews boarded their planes to prepare for takeoff, and the Airborne Command Post—the aircraft designed to allow the president to maintain control in the event of an attack—was put in the air, though without the president on board. Six minutes later, when satellite data failed to confirm any incoming missiles, leaders decided against retaliation. It was later discovered that a technician had mistakenly inserted a tape containing a training exercise scenario into an operational NORAD computer, simulating a full-scale attack.

Missile silos were readied and pilots boarded their nuclear-armed planes because... the wrong disk was put into the computer....


1999... Right... Other Countries Have These Weapons Now

Fourteen nations possess nuclear weapons... and that includes a place as rational and sane as North Korea. Some of them hate each other. Like India and Pakistan. Sometimes they almost nuke each other:




Conclusion:

When we talk about threats to our species, we usually global warming now. But we shouldn't forget nukes. Smart people like Noam Chomsky still consistently bring up the threat of nuclear weapons as one of, if not the threat to human kind. They're used primarily as political weapons, kind of like "get out of invasion free cards" but they do still exist... and will detonate when fired.

While we can hang our hat on the fact that nukes have not been used since 1945 our capacity for violence, pride, and mistakes - both stupid and honest - mean we should count ourselves lucky. I dunno.... if humanity is progressing to a more thoughtful and loving future it would be great to not fuck it up by destroying ourselves with nuclear weapons in the meantime.

U.S. Politics & Civil War, Pt. 1

The trigger of the U.S. Civil War was the election of Abraham Lincoln in November of 1861. One month later the states of South Carolina, Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, Louisiana, Texas and Georgia seceded and a bloody war that would last four years began.

Reading about the politics of America in the decades that preceded the war made me wonder what comparisons could be drawn to today. The issue then was certainly slavery, the deal-breaker being extension of slavery into new territories west of the Mississippi, while today... well just what are the issues in America, right now?

From this Canadian's perspective the big issue comes down to the more government / less government question: If citizens feel abandoned by the American Dream, is the answer large government involvement from Bernie Sanders or balanced budgets and smaller government from Donald Trump or Ted Cruz? As fundamental as this disagreement is, it probably doesn't warrant any comparison to the Civil War.

What troubles me more is the "take our country back" rhetoric, the racial overtones, the angst that many Americans apparently feel (Trump, Cruz, and others wouldn't be saying it if it wasn't resonating with a lot of people). It sounds like a segment of the population will strongly resist the end of the white, Christian majority. Plus, it sounds like that segment of the population is far more likely to own firearms. It's probably nowhere close to a majority but that doesn't mean it couldn't be hugely disruptive or influential in American politics. Like Al Capone said, "You can get more with a kind word and a gun than just a kind word."

I believe that dark sentiments hinted at in the above paragraph (violence, racism, etc.) exist in all populations and in each of us. However they can be exacerbated by our environment. Both Democratic and Republican primaries have had huge support for candidates viewed as "outsiders" who will take politics back from "the establishment" and this suggests a feeling that voices are not being heard. Add to this the stagnating wages and rising costs of the "Apple Economy" (where all manufacturing jobs are outsourced leaving only a few high-paying design jobs and the low-paying retail and distribution jobs) and people will become more desperate.

I have no idea where things are going: better, worse, more of the same. Hopefully Americans have a healthy debate (it seems their primary system expresses views we shy Canadians would never air) and enter their future in a way that more or less works for everyone.

A worst-case scenario? It wouldn't be "these states" vs "those states" conflict like in the 1860s - but that's probably a rare exception as far as civil war's go. More of the Cliven Bundy / militiamen stuff, or success of politicians that are skilled at tapping into and manipulating the discontent of the masses, a la Trump.

Hope you enjoyed this! I'll go into this more in the future since I have more thoughts. If you'd like to read some fiction on a future U.S. Civil War, check out Orson Scott Card's book, Empire:

Take a load off and stop striving

From Rohr, again.

"In fact, possessions and soul seem to operate in inverse proportion to one another. Only through simplicity can we find deep contentment instead of perpetually striving and living unsatisfied. Simple living is the foundational social justice teaching of Jesus, Francis, Gandhi, and all hermits, mystics, prophets, and seers since time immemorial."

I forgot to finish this blog earlier today. It's not going to be much but I had a few quotes from my medication that I thought I would share. The one above struck me partially because of how obvious it is. It seems most spiritual thinkers have been advocating things like "letting go", "simplicity", and "acceptance". The outliers are the rah-rah accomplish anythings found in some churches - though they have their points, too.

I wonder how you and I strive too much. Is it for possessions? This is, in an interesting development, starting to go out of style. In the culture I'm in it's not very prevalent anyway.

Striving for perfection or to promote the ego though... that's probably where we'll find our striving, unsatisfied selves. Something to think about.

I'll leave you with a few other quotes!

"The Franciscan alternative orthodoxy asks us to let go, to recognize that there is enough to go around and meet everyone's need but not everyone's greed."


"But we can indeed be happy in mutual interdependence with nature, with the kindness of others, and with our own hard work and creativity, while living in the natural rhythms of life."

Thoughts on becoming "good"

Reflection on Richard Rohr's Daily Meditation, find it here.

Am I a good person?

Not the smallest of questions with which to start off my 30-day blogging commitment, but it happened to be a question that came to mind by Christian mystic, pastor, and author Richard Rohr... so let's go with it!

The answer we would like to come to is "yes" and in the easiest and quickest way possible. I'm a good person because I help my friends, I treat others fairly, I donate to charity, etc. The good outweighs the bad. Or, if I'm not so sure about that, I at least mean well. If being good to others isn't my measure, perhaps I'm good because I'm good at business, sports, or getting laughs. 

We have a "deep but deceptive human need to 'think well of one's self"", says Rohr. I'd agree with him on intuition and that desire seems like it fuels a lot of our actions. I for one try to improve at hockey - even at age thirty, and I'm not exactly bragging about my failings on Facebook. But - innocent stuff aside - what does he mean by "deceptive"? Is it not 'good' to think of ourselves as... 'good'?" 

The deceptive part is that we  can easily allow ourselves to believe that it is us and us alone with the responsibility to show that we are good. To me, there's something overly burdensome and (thankfully) not true about the idea that it's all up to us. When we succeed at being good, there is no problem. But eventually we all fail one way or another. Whether we hurt someone we love or experience our bodies become sick or die.

The good news is that you and I are good at our core: both loved and accepted by God, as I would put it. We are totally and unapologizingly worthy of thinking well of ourselves! (By the way... is it possible the Bible is one big long account of God trying to convince us of this? Or perhaps, us slowly and brokenly coming to accept this? I'm not a "real theologian" so keep that in mind!) If you've heard much of Christianity you've probably heard of the concept of "Original Sin", which Rohr figures is more about the inevitability of sins happening or their effects being inherited from our parents / past generations. Thankfully we're not a bunch of shitty people with a huge to-do list to become good people.

The weird thing in what he's saying is that... our goodness is connected at the hip to our 'not goodness'. We're going to make mistakes. We're going to fail. We're going to die. We will be weak and we will be losers... little Trump reference here.... 

"Donald Trump recently said he's 'a great Christian'. That needs a serious fact check, I think. What he's talking about...
Posted by Mike Friesen on Monday, December 28, 2015

...but God loves us anyway and transforms us because of that. When I think about this it strikes me how comforting / discomforting that is. Discomforting because it's basically saying "count on hardships... lots of them". The comforting part is that it's transformation for the better... although I'm 100% not trying to join the "let's wrap everything up in a nice neat bow" club by any means.

What's my takeaway? My takeaway is that we are loved at our most inner, intimate core, meaning we should be patient with ourselves mess up or are in any way less than we'd like. Call it failure, sin, weakness, suffering - whatever we'd like - but when we approach those things with humility and with... the hope that an impossible beauty can emerge from those things, we're somehow growing closer to God. 

Hey... Alberta has new irrational drunk driving laws.

Alberta has introduced new 'drunk' driving laws that penalizes those who register under the legal BAC limit of .08 but over the mark of .05 which the Province "still considers unsafe." The penalties include having their vehicle impounded for three days and losing their licence for three days. The Globe and Mail article is here.

So, in an effort to stop crashes caused by impaired drivers the government has decided to make it illegal to have a glass of wine with dinner.  How a law like this is supposed to in any way effect someone selfish enough to drive legitimately drunk I'd like to know. This seems like the easiest possible way for a politician to look like they're working on the problem. Or at least get MADD off their backs for a while. I don't know.

Also on the topic, I'd also like to throw it out there how ineffective and expensive longer prison sentences are for most crimes, including drunk driving.
Honestly what's the difference between a 20 year prison sentence and a 10 year one? Is a would-be drunk driver sitting weighing the pro's and con's of either driving drunk or not driving drunk? The exact problem is that they are not thinking of the consequences of their actions, on themselves and other people.

Keep in mind also that the drunk driver likely possesses no other threat to society besides when he/she is behind the wheel of a car.

I agree with the feeling that we're not getting enough justice but we need to get beyond longer/mandatory prison sentences being the answer to everything.

How the hell are we poor?

I can't believe this isn't talked about more. Seems so obvious.

Why, at a time of "peak oil" and never-before-seen technological advancement, are nations and their citizens bankrupt?

It's because corporations and extremely wealthy individuals control a crippling amount of the wealth in the world. Wealth doesn't just disappear except through inefficiencies (for example when an arsonist sets a perfectly good home on fire, insurance, fire, and police costs are incurred to fellow homeowners and society at large). Basically this is a zero-sum game. Individuals and nations are running deficits. Someone must be running a surplus.

Here's who's running surpluses: Corporations, extremely wealthy individuals, China, several oil-exporting countries.

When government's pursue "austerity measures" and cut social spending or government programs, yes, that's one (painful) way to get rid of their deficit - but isn't it short-term? That type of action hurts the lower and middle classes. And the corporate tax rate that affects the extremely wealthy? Lowered.

I've always suspected that we need a corporate stimulus package not a government one. They're the ones with the money. Thankfully we don't have to ask for one. We live in a democracy. Elected officials can simply raise taxes on the extremely wealthy.

How do I charge enough?

This is how to live the lifestyle you want.  Answer these two questions:

1. How much money do you want in a week?

2. How many hours do you want to work in a week?


Now figure it out. Here are my answers, using the example of a Christmas light installation company I'm starting:

1. $1500
2. 40 (36 hours install, 4 hours overhead)

$1500/36 = $41.67/hr

So to get to $1500/wk, I need to get 36 hours worth of work at that rate, or less work at a higher rate, etc.


Thoughts:

Since I'm looking at splitting the profits 50/50 I'll have to bill accordingly, around $83/hr.  Plus there's driving time to and from jobs, travel costs, some fix-up jobs after the work has been done (which may be included in the initial install) so I'll want to bill a little higher than that $83/hr.

Let's look at 36 hours of work and say that only 2/3 of that "work" will actually be doing installs. Maybe that's a little conservative... Yep. I'll want to bill above that.

Am I going to be able to get enough business?  Good things happen at the Exchange Cafe. Thanks Mario for the advice!